Oscar Predictions

The longest Oscar season ever is coming to a close. The extended deadline gave us more time to ruminate, and by the end of the Oscar show, I’m sure it will all make sense. Oscar hindsight is always 20/20.

My top 3 films, “Promising Young Woman,” “Sound of Metal” and “Nomadland” are all up for Best Picture, which is quite exciting. And all three will hopefully take home some awards.

I’m predicting five wins for “Nomadland” and four for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” another film in my Top 10. But, in the words of Awards Watch’s Erik Anderson, am I pre-dicting or hope-dicting? If I was truly hope-dicting I would put “Promising Young Woman” in that top spot.

This is the third time in recent memory that I have predicted a sweep. With “La La Land” I was way off, thinking it would win almost all it was nominated for coming close to breaking records. Similarly I thought “1917” would sweep. There was indeed a sweep last year, but for a different film.

Could I be wrong again with “Nomadland?” Perhaps, but probably not in Best Picture. I don’t see any “writings on the wall” for any of the other nominees…not like there was for “Moonlight” or “Parasite.”

If “The Trial of the Chicago 7” wins Best Picture, it won’t exactly be a shock, but it doesn’t quite make sense. I loved the movie, but it’s not the right choice.

I have not predicted Best Picture correctly since “Spotlight.” This year should (hopefully!) change that.

Best Actress will be the most exciting moment of the night. All five are deserving. And honestly, any can win. I even think Vanessa Kirby could win as votes will be quite split. It’s going to be a very close race. I’m still rooting for Carey Mulligan, and many are predicting her in a sort of last minute groundswell of hope, but I am going with Viola Davis.

Last year I really went out on a limb with many of my predictions. I wanted to see what would happen if I didn’t rely on the consensus and went full heart and gut.

It didn’t turn out well. This year I still used heart/gut but with a little bit more logic.

My riskiest prediction is Editing. Last year was the return of the Editing/Picture combo, and I think it could happen again. Which gives “Nomadland” the edge. Most are going for “Sound of Metal” or “The Trial of the Chicago 7.” Honestly any of the three would make me happy.

Here are my predictions.

BEST PICTURE

WILL WIN:
NOMADLAND

SHOULD WIN:
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

SPOILER:
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

WILL WIN:
Chadwick Boseman in MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM

SHOULD WIN: (Do I have to pick?!)
Riz Ahmed in SOUND OF METAL

SPOILER:
Anthony Hopkins in THE FATHER

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

WILL WIN:
Daniel Kaluuya in JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

SHOULD WIN:
Paul Raci in SOUND OF METAL

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

WILL WIN:
Viola Davis in MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM

SHOULD WIN:
Carey Mulligan in PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

SPOILERS:
Andra Day in THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
Carey Mulligan in PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN:
Yuh-Jung Youn in MINARI

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

WILL WIN:
SOUL

SHOULD WIN:
WOLFWALKERS

CINEMATOGRAPHY

WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN:
NOMADLAND
Joshua James Richards

SPOILER:
MANK
Erik Messerschmidt

COSTUME DESIGN

WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN:
MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM
Ann Roth

DIRECTING

WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN:
NOMADLAND
Chloé Zhao

DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)

WILL WIN
MY OCTOPUS TEACHER

SPOILER
CRIP CAMP

SHOULD WIN:
TIME

DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)

WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN:
COLETTE

SPOILERS:
A CONCERTO IS A CONVERSATION
A LOVE SONG FOR LATASHA

FILM EDITING

WILL WIN:
NOMADLAND
Chloé Zhao

SHOULD WIN/SPOILER:
SOUND OF METAL
Mikkel E. G. Nielsen

ALSO SPOILER:
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Alan Baumgarten

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

WILL WIN:
ANOTHER ROUND

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN:
MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

WILL WIN:
SOUL

SHOULD WIN:
MINARI

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

WILL WIN:
"Speak Now" from ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI...

SPOILER:
Fight For You" from JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

PRODUCTION DESIGN

WILL WIN:
MANK

SHOULD WIN/SPOILER:
THE FATHER

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

WILL WIN:
IF ANYTHING HAPPENS I LOVE YOU

SHOULD WIN:
OPERA

SPOILER:
BURROW

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN:
FEELING THROUGH

SPOILERS:
TWO DISTANT STRANGERS
THE LETTER ROOM

SOUND

WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN:
SOUND OF METAL

VISUAL EFFECTS

WILL WIN:
TENET

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN:
NOMADLAND
Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao

SPOILER:
THE FATHER
Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN:
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Written by Emerald Fennell

SPOILER:
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Written by Aaron Sorkin