It’s OSCAR WEEK - what to watch and what might happen!
In years past I published my 27 Days of Oscar series to catch up on all the nominated films and give my readers a glimpse into how I predicted the Oscars. Last year, I decided to step back my Oscar coverage and launch this website instead. After last year’s ceremony, I made a spontaneous decision to get back into the Oscar game, but mere days later the world changed, and as days turned to months, I simply couldn’t bring myself to commit.
Now, it’s the week of the Oscars, and I’ve got the bug!! With only a few days remaining, I wondered what I would need to see to feel fully invested come Oscar night.
Looking at the full list of nominations, to my great surprise, I have seen the majority of the films with a few exceptions. I can’t see everything in less than a week, but I can squeeze a few important ones in.
Below is my must see list for a fun and exciting Oscar night, for you and myself , with some predictions thrown in as well.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Before it was released Chadwick Boseman was almost instantly the frontrunner for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom - the hype was stratospheric and once I saw it, his acting certainly matched it. On Sunday, the film could be a top winner. Most are predicting it for Costumes, Makeup and Actor (I think actor is a tighter category than most). Almost no one is predicting it for Production Design (although I could see that happening in a mini sweep scenario, but I also have a Mank blindspot) and Viola Davis is certainly in contention for Best Actress. But remember…it has a weakness…they didn’t nominate it for Best Picture.
Promising Young Woman
It’s my favorite film of the year. If you haven’t seen it, do it! It should win Original Screenplay for Emerald Fennell, a sole prize that has often gone to my favorite films over the years. Carey Mulligan is a possibility for Actress, but I am not getting my hopes up there. Best Picture? Highly unlikely. I have the impression that some Academy members haven’t seen it. Sure, the Academy has recently gone with some bold choices for BP, but PYW doesn’t have the steak-eater gravitas that “Parasite” or even “Moonlight” had to pull off an upset.
Nomadland
The film to beat! Oh, have I said that before. I have not correctly predicted a Best Picture win since “Spotlight” and that SMARTS.
All the signs are pointing to Nomadland winning Best Picture except for that SAG Ensemble award. That’s happened before.
Like with La La Land the SAG arguments are the same. It was a two hander…no real ensemble, etc, etc….but there were always La La Land detractors.
This year actually compares more to the year Roma lost to Green Book.
Nomadland held off going fully virtual for theaters for a long time. Roma on the other hand had that Netflix taint. This year, however, Netflix was a saving grace for many and Nomadland’s biggest competitor, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix!) is a better film than Green Book.
Chloe Zhao is the night’s biggest lock for Best Director, but don’t be surprised if the film loses Cinematography to Mank. That leaves Picture, maybe Editing and Actress.
The Trial of the Chicago 7
To my readers who aren’t critics or wannabe critics…you probably don’t know this, but Film Twitter (ick!) doesn’t like this film. Why? Because it simply holds that space this year.
It’s a really good movie and very well acted. But it doesn’t have much buzz. I see this film going home empty handed or winning two. Picture and Screenplay. Although Original Song isn’t completely out of the question either. Don’t you love my lack of prediction commitment?
Oscar Nominated Shorts - Live Action, Animated and Docs
I have been covering the Oscar nominated shorts for well over a decade, and I highly suggest anyone looking to enhance their Oscar night to check them out. They are showing in theaters and virtually this year.
The Live Action Shorts are a group unlike any I can recall in the past. With the exception of The Present, which is quite familiar for this category, there are 4 very original films. Two Distant Strangers is so similar to The Obituary of Tunde Johnson which played Outfest, but with a 2nd twist ending that is so insanely powerful in its depiction of racism that it could push the film over the edge for the win. Feeling Through touched me the most, and if I was voting, that would be my pick. I see a few people predicting The Letter Room which could happen…and it’s very good. There always seems to be one short with a couple of famous actors in it (Oscar Isaac and Alia Shawkat in this case), but that doesn’t always translate to a win. The cinematography in White Eye was remarkable, but the ending was a bit too on the nose for my taste.
The Animated Shorts are definitely not the strongest bunch. I think I may have enjoyed Yes-People the most, and although the characters feel fully realized, the execution of the story (what story, really) is an issue. Burrow is adequate, but a version of this has been nominated time and again. Genius Loci was possibly the longest 16 minutes of my life. I can’t fathom anyone thinking the Academy would choose that film.
Honestly, there are only 2 films in this category worthy of a win. The first is Opera, a truly stunning bit of animation about, life? Race? Religion? It’s thought provoking and mesmerizing. Then there is If Anything Happens I love You, the only film that truly connects on an emotional level. And made by Netflix. It is heavy handed in its themes and techniques, but it also works. It will be a tight race between the two.
It’s often strange and uncomfortable to look at the Doc shorts in terms of competition. Especially in a year like this when so many are meaningful and important. Watching both “Hunger Ward” and “Do Not Split” I couldn’t help but reflect on the immense selfishness I have witnessed over the past year+ in the US from people declaring inconvenience. Look no further than these two films to gain some perspective on your life. Most people are predicting either “A Love Song for Latasha” or “A Concerto Is a Conversation” for the win. “Latasha” is very well done, and it’s Netflix’s entry in the category (they have won before), but I also found it a bit incomplete. I was unaware of this story and the short doesn’t quite tell a full story despite being moving. “Concerto” is a NYTimes entry…and the least difficult to watch. I am usually not a fan of NY Times docs, with the exception of “Time,” also nominated this year for Doc Feature. “Concerto” is no exception. The moment the subjects looked directly in the camera, they lost me. The best of the bunch is “Colette.” Not only is it poignant and powerful, it gives us moments of real truth. Not many are predicting it, but I am.
Filling out the rest - Another Round, The Octopus Teacher, Tenet and The White Tiger
There are three potential winning films I have yet to see. Another Round, The Octopus Teacher and Tenet. (Not counting Original Song, but I’m letting that slide this year.)
I had avoided Another Round because the idea of watching people drink non stop on film isn’t quite as appealing to me as it once was, but hearing Kim Masters interview nominated director Thomas Vinterberg gave me a little more insight into what he was going for beyond a drinkfest. I would be so disappointed if the film wins and I haven’t seen it.
Same with Documentary Feature, which is why I need to see The Octopus Teacher. This is a film that many experts have deemed unworthy, but I think there is a bit of snobbery involved there. That same snobbery kept me from predicting Icarus when I was sure the Academy couldn’t possibly ignore Agnes Varda and Faces Places. They did. Everyone I know outside of Twitter that has watched The Octopus Teacher has absolutely loved it.
I have avoided Tenet for as long as possible. I have often found Nolan overrated, and his attitude and actions during 2020 were beyond elitist. But the film’s potential for winning an Oscar for Visual Effects finally seals the deal for me. I’m watching it.
Finally, that leaves The White Tiger. That film had been recommended to me in a similar vein as The Octopus Teacher and is the only film nominated in the top categories that I haven’t seen.
So, there you have it. Hopefully I have shed a little light on Oscar night and given you a little boost for your at home predictions.