Not predicting the Oscars

The last year I correctly predicted Best Picture was five years ago with “Birdman” That’s 4 years of missing the mark on the Academy’s big prize. The night Spotlight won Best Picture was my worst overall showing in years. Since then I have gotten better at my predictions but never topping 2014 when I only missed 2.

I thought for sure The “Revenant” would win. Same with “La La Land,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” and last year it was “Roma.” The year I predicted a picture/director split (Billboards/Del Toro) was the one year it didn’t happen.

Tonight, most people are predicting “1917” to win and win big. A late breaking film with all the hype heading into the finish line, with Sam Mendes taking Best Director, the film winning both sound categories…cinematography. OK…so that’s only 5, but still. 6 if you count VFX. Which I guess I would…There are some saying “Parasite” could win up to 3 awards. Picture, Screenplay, Editing… A film that could be this year’s “Moonlight.”

I keep going back to the year I predicted a semi sweep for “La La Land.” That one still stings. Is “1917” really the film to do that again?

Watching “Parasite” again yesterday …having just seen “Ford V Ferrari” earlier in the day, I couldn’t help thinking…the type of Academy member who nominated “Ford” would never vote for “Parasite” for Best Picture. But then again…what about “Moonlight?” How did it win? It had the gay theme stacked against it, for sure and the Academy had a reputation for not embracing diversity, so that was an issue as well. “Parasite” would be the first foreign language, I mean, International Film to ever win Best Picture. And the first Cannes winner since the 50s.

“1917” seems the safe bet, right? Maybe.

I’m so glad that I watched “Ford v Ferarri,” before the Oscars because without watching it, I wouldn’t have truly understood the Best Picture landscape. Many of us had hoped for a film such as “The Farewell” to get nominated, but that was seriously wishful thinking. The Academy isn’t there yet. They also aren’t in a place where they see the nuances of the direction of a film like “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” not to mention “The Farewell.”

Although they didn’t nominate Greta Gerwig or James Mangold for director, they can at least see how to place these films in their Best Picture category.

Would the same person have put “Little Women” and “Ford v Ferrari” on their top 5 or even 10? Probably not. Although I appreciated Ferrari’s scope, cinematography and acting, I found it to be a hyper masculine, overtly nationalist, completely unoriginal yawn. It’s not a bad movie by any means. It simply isn’t for me. Ironically I thought Bale was better in Ferrari than his most recent nominated (and winning) roles. Go figure.

“Little Women” has one of the most innovative and daring screenplays of the year. Unfortunately for Greta, so does “Jojo Rabbit.” Gerwig’s direction is something I couldn’t see as clearly in the beginning, but she executes that screenplay exquisitely and should be given credit for that. Even before the nominations came out the conversation had already shifted from the actual merits of “Little Women” to whether or not the Academy should/should have nominated a woman director, which led to recent bombastic skewerings and praisings of the film.

Sadly, in the age of Twitter, it’s hard to tell who to consider a wise voice in criticism and opinion. There are people who don’t like “Little Women” and that’s ok. Because despite how people present their opinions they are still that. Opinion. Often dressed up as fact, but not. That’s what Twitter hath brought.

One of the most fascinating things from my perspective about the Best Picture race is the treatment of “The Irishman.” I have listened to critics talk about the lack of originality in films that they malign for years, yet with Scorsese’s “The Irishman” it doesn’t seem to matter. That being said, the Academy gave the film 10 nominations. But when it comes to winning, the Academy ignored Scorsese for years, remember. Thelma Schoonmaker could win for editing, which makes a bit more sense to me than “Parasite” winning. For one thing I didn’t know the name of the editor for “Parasite” until this morning - Yang Jin-mo - in case you were wondering! And the only reason I know Thelma is the editor for “The Irishman” is because I follow the Oscars…probably more so than actual Academy members. They are going to vote for the film. Not the person. So who knows what might win there.

“Marriage Story” started the year incredibly strong and played festival after festival, and Laura Dern will most definitely win the film’s only award, although bored/surprise hoping Oscar watchers are considering an upset here. Although most say, if an upset could happen it would be in Best Actress…because it happened last year. But the thing about an upset? You can’t really predict it.

Which brings us back to our original frontrunner, “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood.” Once upon a time Tarantino had a real shot at Best Picture. And then he was shunned away to a Best Original Screenplay also ran. And now, most aren’t even predicting that to happen. Let’s not forget though that his films have often won in categories when they weren’t supposed to. Christoph Waltz’s 2nd Oscar, comes to mind.

If anything has a chance to take away
”1917’s” “consensus” win, it would be “Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood.” Or even “Jojo Rabbit.” That’s a film that is LOVED by the industry. I can tell from the actual film people I follow on social media, that “Jojo” is loved. It’s Film Twitter that says people hate it. Can’t trust Film Twitter (re: last year’s “Green Book.”)

So, does “1917” have this in the bag? I don’t know. Who can say? Not me….I love the film. It’s my #1 film of the year. I can’t tell you the last time my favorite film took the top prize. It certainly wasn’t the year “Moonlight” won, because it was my #2 film. Funny enough, “Parasite” sits at my #2 this year…could that mean something?!?!

Tomorrow morning, will be a new day, and the Oscars will be over. I see it as a bit of a new year, actually. In years past, after the Oscars…I have wanted to shut down and take a break, but this time I’m actually pretty excited about the prospect of writing about film again.

I have some major decisions to make in the coming months about how I plan to spend my “free” time in 2020. There is so much I want to do, but only so much time to do it. No decisions today, only reflection and fun. Enjoy the Oscars. The one thing I will predict…is that this year, I will.